• Howdy! Welcome to our community of more than 130.000 members devoted to web hosting. This is a great place to get special offers from web hosts and post your own requests or ads. To start posting sign up here. Cheers! /Peo, FreeWebSpace.net

It's official, Bush will win comfortably in November.

Conscript

Conscript

NLC
NLC
As I've predicted on various forums, probably even this one, it looks like Bush will win pretty comfortably in November. Now that the conventions are over and people are paying attention to the race the polls are starting to reflect actual voter perceptions that will resemble to some extent the final results of the vote (barring some unforseen events).

There are two polls out right now showing that Bush got a siginficant bounce from the convention - TIME which shows Bush 52, Kerry 41, and Newsweek which shows Bush 54, Kerry 43. Both margins are 11 points in favor of George W. Bush.

What is even more damagaing and telling about these polls - and what is indicating this isn't a mindless bounce but a lasting trend - are the internal numbers.

Every poll asks not only who the person will vote for but also a variety of other questions, for example how they feel about an issue or who they think is better at handling a particular issue.

According to Newsweek, on the top 3 issues believed by many pundits that will decide this election Bush is now ahead.

On the economy Bush has a 49-43 lead (6 points over Kerry), on Iraq 55-37 Bush lead (18 points over Kerry), and on Terrorism Bush leads 60-32 (28 POINTS OVER KERRY!).

If John Kerry is to bridge this 11 point overall margin and win the election, he will have to make HUGE inroads into these 3 issues - something he has failed to do throught his entire campaign. The main issue (internal) that kept Kerry within a dead heat of Bush was the economy - but the perception on who is better on that issue has clearly now changed in favor of Bush.

Bush has also gained on Iraq - another issue that was keeping him down due to Democrat critics and increasing death toll. Now this Issue is clearly an asset for Bush.

Finally, Terrorism, the grand daddy of them all, Bush leads Kerry nearly 2 to 1, 60-32, and this issue will no doubt be on the voters minds as Republicans keep reminding America of September 11.

From all indications it looks like Bush is on his way to a pretty comfortable victory against John Kerry.

Those of you who are making bets on the elections, I'd bet Bush with 53-55% of the popular vote.
 
Kerry hasn't said what he plans on doing when he's President, and that is a big issue with me. I've never defended Kerry, I just don't want Bush President. I think Kerry has a horrible senate record and it reflects poorly on what he's able to accomplish as President.

One of the things that I found interesting was:

Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.

I agree. I don't think Bush understands the needs of the people of this country.

I think Bush is a horrible President and kerry would be one too, and Nader, let's not even talk about that man. I hope in 2008 there will be a candidate that I like. I think we are steering ourselves into a corner and we will never get out of it.

Our National Debt continues to rise, and it's our fault for putting these jokers in office. These jokes are the ones who then turn around and let their friends become rich, while backhanding the rest of America.

I think this election and last election we've had a horrible selection of Presidential Candidates. I've never seen a President like Bush that has had so much controversial issues against him, obviously that say a lot.

With Bush or Kerry in office, this country is heading in the wrong direction.

My grips with Bush is that he's against two of the things I'm for, Same Sex Marriage and Stem Cell Research.

And I wouldn't say It's Official that Bush will win, you never know what will happen.

If OSL is "magically" captured in Oct, it can actually play against Bush instead of for Bush.
 
Conscript said:
Those of you who are making bets on the elections, I'd bet Bush with 53-55% of the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Bush didn't even win the popular vote in 2000. If he wns this election it's not because America approves of him, it's because America disapproves of Kerry.

"And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
topped 50 percent since January."

Americans do not appove of Bush.
 
I don't think the capture of bin Laden would play against Bush, if anything it will clinch his re-election.

When Democrats cry and moan and accuse Bush of timing it and what not they will be seen as conspiracy kooks and such things will play even further against them. Just like Howard Dean saying Bush knew about 9/11 ahead of time and let it happen so he can go to war was one of the contributing factors that allowed Republicans to label him as a fringe candidate and ultimatley he lost the primary because he was not seen as someone who can beat Bush (too extreme).
 
Bill Clinton's rating during his re-election was worse. Only something like in the mid 30 percent said they liked the direction the country was heading in 1996. Historically it is evident that the approval rating (52-55% for Bush depending on the poll now, Rasmussen has 54%) is a much better indicator of how people think.

One of the poll numbers you missed is the one that tells us that people DO LIKE George Bush, on the question if "is personally likeable" Bush gets 67%, Kerry gets 59%. On "shares your values" Bush gets 54%, Kerry 42%, and in the question of honesty 62% say Bush is honest, while Kerry gets only 47%.

What this tells us is that despite not agreeing with all his policies Bush is seen as a stronger leader who is more likeable personally than John Kerry. Bush is also seen as far more honest than John Kerry. These kind of qualities do matter to voters who will be the last to make up their minds (i.e. the "swing voters").

A positive approval rating (52-55% depending on the poll) also shows that a majority do approve of Bush's policies and this pretty much where most presidents stood on the eve of their re-elections.
 
Last edited:
For me it isn't who I'm voting for, its who I'm voting against.

Anybody but, Bush 2004. :biggrin2:
 
Conscript said:
Bill Clinton's rating during his re-election was worse. Only something like in the mid 30 percent said they liked the direction the country was heading in 1996. Historically it is evident that the approval rating (52-55% for Bush depending on the poll now, Rasmussen has 54%) is a much better indicator of how people think.

One of the poll numbers you missed is the one that tells us that people DO LIKE George Bush, on the question if "is personally likeable" Bush gets 67%, Kerry gets 59%. On "shares your values" Bush gets 54%, Kerry 42%, and in the question of honesty 62% say Bush is honest, while Kerry gets only 47%.
Click to expand...
In 1992 Bill Clinton was behind George H. Bush, yet he won. In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote and won the electoral (or so they say), does it plan on loosing the popular vote again and win the electoral college and skimming by?

I feel Bush has failed this country is every possible way, he's seperated us from the rest of the world, he's added enemies against us, he's divided this country. But I believe Kerry would be disastrous to this country.

To whomever wins, the next 4 years will be a hard and bumpy road. And whoever takes office in 2008 has A LOT of fixing to do.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, there are voters like you as well, and its voters like you "anyone but bush" who have insured that Bush will win another 4 years.

If you actually cared about the issues and who led your party rather than being led by a blind irrational hatred of Bush, the Democrats would have nominated a candidate who could actually win instead of a uncharismatic dud no one likes.
 
No, Bill Clinton was ahead of George Bush 41 at this point in time. In fact after his convention, Bill Clinton led by 22 points (source: http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12919).

Kerry has never had a lead anywhere near that. Clinton got a 16 point bounce after his convention, Kerry got a -1.

Statistically speaking, Bush pretty much fits all the criteria for re-election. I don't think there are any stats out there that would show that historically a candidate in Bush's position would lose.
 
Last edited:
Its not really a blind irrational hate of bush, its actually a well-thought out hate of Bush. He has not been a good president.
 
Bush has really given the Democrats all they would normally want. From campaign finance reform, to the biggest new entitlement in 50 years (medicare bill), increased education spending, and even gave a crap load of new money to AIDS (yet they have the gall to still protest him on this issue). He took Kerry and Clinton's advice and went into Iraq to pursue the WMDs that Democrats have told him Saddam had over the years.

There really is no good reason to hate Bush.

But let's keep this a debate on Bush's reelection chances (which I say is a lock now, though I am open to other points of view of analyzing the data out there) as well as other predictions for 2004's election.

In addition to a Bush re-election, I predict Republicans will have the Senate 55-44-1 as well as expand their majority in the US House by at least 10 seats.

Oh yeah, and if you look at the standings on labor day (http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12919) you will see that in almost every case but one, I think, the person who was leading on labor day has gone on to win the presidency that November.
 
Last edited:
Robert said:
Kerry hasn't said what he plans on doing when he's President, and that is a big issue with me. I've never defended Kerry, I just don't want Bush President. I think Kerry has a horrible senate record and it reflects poorly on what he's able to accomplish as President.

One of the things that I found interesting was:

Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.

I agree. I don't think Bush understands the needs of the people of this country.

I think Bush is a horrible President and kerry would be one too, and Nader, let's not even talk about that man. I hope in 2008 there will be a candidate that I like. I think we are steering ourselves into a corner and we will never get out of it.

Our National Debt continues to rise, and it's our fault for putting these jokers in office. These jokes are the ones who then turn around and let their friends become rich, while backhanding the rest of America.

I think this election and last election we've had a horrible selection of Presidential Candidates. I've never seen a President like Bush that has had so much controversial issues against him, obviously that say a lot.

With Bush or Kerry in office, this country is heading in the wrong direction.

My grips with Bush is that he's against two of the things I'm for, Same Sex Marriage and Stem Cell Research.

And I wouldn't say It's Official that Bush will win, you never know what will happen.

If OSL is "magically" captured in Oct, it can actually play against Bush instead of for Bush.
Click to expand...
Hillary Rodham might be a candidate in 2008 elections.

Well, Clinton was a great president to America, but not elsewhere in the world. He caused the Asian Economic Crisis.
 
Robert said:
Americans do not appove of Bush.
Click to expand...
So now you speak for all ameicans Robert? Figures.

LP-Trel said:
For me it isn't who I'm voting for, its who I'm voting against.
Anybody but, Bush 2004.
Click to expand...
Great mentality.

Robert said:
I feel Bush has failed this country is every possible way, he's seperated us from the rest of the world, he's added enemies against us, he's divided this country.
Click to expand...
Yep. I suppose the politcal machine had nothing to do with this? Was not the 2000 election equally divided?
 
Last edited:
Archbob said:
Its not really a blind irrational hate of bush, its actually a well-thought out hate of Bush. He has not been a good president.
Click to expand...

Exactly... and who said I was a Democrat? :bandit2:
 
Archbob said:
Its not really a blind irrational hate of bush, its actually a well-thought out hate of Bush. He has not been a good president.
Click to expand...
Please tell us why you don't think President Bush "has not been a good president" and while you are at it, why would Kerry be any better?
 
he looks shifty, like a bad guy in the movies.

that's why kerry shouldn't be president, sure its shallow, but its the truth, i mean.. none of you guys would like a fob or a wog as a president would you.

(fob = fresh off the boat = asian)
(wog = western oriental gentleman = greek/italian)

sure my statements have nothing to do with the debate, but i think arnie should go for the presidency. at least he'd win hands down.
 
tandoc said:
he looks shifty, like a bad guy in the movies.

that's why kerry shouldn't be president, sure its shallow, but its the truth, i mean.. none of you guys would like a fob or a wog as a president would you.

(fob = fresh off the boat = asian)
(wog = western oriental gentleman = greek/italian)

sure my statements have nothing to do with the debate, but i think arnie should go for the presidency. at least he'd win hands down.
Click to expand...
And terminate those who goes against him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top